Market Musings
The IBD market call is "Uptrend-Under-Pressure".
Inflation is not under control and the striking auto workers
will not help while disrupting the economy through shortages in
the supply chain.
Remember that a 2% inflation rate is really just the
destruction of about 18% in the value of the nations' currency in
a decade.
"Bidenomics" is not as beneficial to most Americans as the
press would try to allege. Of course, this is really the
Obama 3rd term.
The House has begun an impeachment inquiry into the activities
of the "Biden crime family."
Will the "brain trust" remove Kamala Harris before the attempt
to replace Biden before the election next year?
Shadow Government Statistics suggests the Biden Administration
economic reports are incorrect.
There are a few cracks in the Biden rosy economic story ...
- All revisions to employment data have been negative
... but investors continue to be gullible. In July, the U.S. actually lost 585,000 full-time jobs --
moreover, all revisions to previous data is downward.
- State & federal tax revenues are down. the
US incurred a deficit of $1.3T in Fiscal 2022 (September). If
the current run rate is sustained that would imply an
annualized deficit of $2.9 Trillion.
- Fitch is continuing to downgrade bank debt.
- Money supply is falling at the fastest rate in history.
- Farm Income is projected to drop 25% in 2023 due to
projected yields and increased costs.
- Will the airline unions further disrupt the economy by
striking ... demanding wage and benefit
increases that will increase costs and reduce company profits.
- Trucking revenues and rates are falling each month
according to the Cass data.
- Cardboard box demand is dropping.
- The Index of Leading Indicators from the Conference Board
has declined for 15 consecutive months.
- Delinquency rates for commercial properties both here and
abroad continues to increase.
- Mortgage rates are 19% higher than a year ago. Will
the FED continue to raise interest rates again at their next
meeting?
- Credit card debt continues to increase as do rates.
- Complaints about missing funds or delays in deposits being
available at banking institutions are increasing.
The STI (Simple Timing Indicator) and the number of "A" rated stocks
remains below the red line.
Do not forget that about 25% of the stock markets value is held
by only 7 stocks ... danger ahead?
Have we reached the Minsky moment? The dollar's reserve
status is slipping away taking the U.S. economy towards a slippery
slope.
The meeting in South Africa this past week set in motion a
further shrinkage in the role of the U.S. dollar in international
trade.
Dare I say that it will be
at least another year of dismal U.S. and world economic growth.
And that is if we don't enter a major military war with either
Russia or China.
Until Congress stops spending deficit dollars, the outlook is
bleak.
Do not be surprised if the NASDAQ falls through 8,000, the SPX
to 2,500 and the
DJIA sees the 25,000 level.
Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"
It is difficult to find long-term trading opportunities with the
future so uncertain. There are only two stocks currently held in the Strategic Investing
Trading Portfolio.
By any reasonable measure, this market is
dangerous.
Be careful ....
To review the 09/15/2023 FlowChart, click
here.
|