Market Musings
The underlying currents in the market appear to be suggesting
that the FED is somewhat ambivalent about the direction of the
economy and the effects that its policies have on the inflation
fight.
Still the betting is for the FED to continue to raise
interest rates at least two more times. Just stoking the
fires for a recession.
The massive growth in the country's public and
consumer debt and the continuing shrinkage in the economy does not
suggest a healthy economy.
- Existing home sales fell 20% during the latest report
period.
- Continued reduction in the nations petroleum reserves
helped reduce the CPI data.
- The Cass report shows freight rates declining.
- Auto loan defaults are increasing.
- Consumer Sentiment continues to decline.
- The banking crisis remains as PacWest struggles & bank
deposits hemorrhage.
- Office and apartment loan
deals suggest that the economy has already entered a recession.
- Declining bank deposits during the past two months
should worry the FED.
Unfortunately, the market is still trying to suggest that the
economy is not facing a major decline. But don't forget that
Microsoft & Apple are about 18% of the total valuation of the U.S.
stock market.
Have we reached the Minsky moment? The dollar's reserve
status is slipping away taking the U.S. economy towards a slippery
slope.
Shadow Government Statistics suggests the Biden Administration
economic reports are incorrect.
Dare I say that it will be
at least another year of dismal U.S. and world economic growth.
And that is if we don't enter a major military war with either
Russia or China.
Until Congress stops spending deficit dollars, the outlook is
bleak.
Do not be surprised if the NASDAQ falls through 8,000, the SPX
to 2,500 and the
DJIA sees the 25,000 level.
The Acc/Dis line of "A" rated stocks has risen back
towards the red line
to suggest that the bulls are not dead quite yet ...
caution is advised.
Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"
It is difficult to find long-term trading opportunities with the
future so uncertain. By any reasonable measure, this market is
dangerous.
Be careful ....
To review the 05/12/2023 FlowChart, click
here.
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