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Market Musings

The underlying currents in the market appear to be suggesting that the FED is somewhat ambivalent about the direction of the economy and the effects that its policies have on the inflation fight.

 Still the betting is for the FED to continue to raise interest rates at least two more times.  Just stoking the fires for a recession.

The massive growth in the country's public and consumer debt and the continuing shrinkage in the economy does not suggest a healthy economy.

  • Existing home sales fell 20% during the latest report period.
  • Continued reduction in the nations petroleum reserves helped reduce the CPI data.
  • The Cass report shows freight rates declining.
  • Auto loan defaults are increasing.
  • Consumer Sentiment continues to decline.
  • The banking crisis remains as PacWest struggles & bank deposits hemorrhage.
  • Office and apartment loan deals suggest that the economy has already entered a recession.
  • Declining bank deposits during the past two months should worry the FED.

Unfortunately, the market is still trying to suggest that the economy is not facing a major decline. But don't forget that Microsoft & Apple are about 18% of the total valuation of the U.S. stock market.

Have we reached the Minsky moment?  The dollar's reserve status is slipping away taking the U.S. economy towards a slippery slope.

Shadow Government Statistics suggests the Biden Administration economic reports are incorrect.

Dare I say that it will be at least another year of dismal U.S. and world economic growth.

And that is if we don't enter a major military war with either Russia or China.

Until Congress stops spending deficit dollars, the outlook is bleak. 

Do not be surprised if the NASDAQ falls through 8,000, the SPX to 2,500 and the DJIA sees the 25,000 level.

The Acc/Dis line of "A" rated stocks has risen back towards the red line to suggest that the bulls are not dead quite yet ...  caution is advised.

Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"

It is difficult to find long-term trading opportunities with the future so uncertain.

By any reasonable measure, this market is dangerous.

Be careful ....

To review the 05/12/2023 FlowChart, click here.

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