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Market Musings

The IBD market call is "Uptrend-Under-Pressure". 

Inflation is not under control and the striking auto workers will not help while disrupting the economy through shortages in the supply chain.

 Remember that a 2% inflation rate is really just the destruction of about 18% in the value of the nations' currency in a decade.

"Bidenomics" is not as beneficial to most Americans as the press would try to allege.  Of course, this is really the Obama 3rd term.

The House has begun an impeachment inquiry into the activities of the "Biden crime family."

Will the "brain trust" remove Kamala Harris before the attempt to replace Biden before the election next year?

Shadow Government Statistics suggests the Biden Administration economic reports are incorrect.

There are a few cracks in the Biden rosy economic story ... 

  • All revisions to employment data have been negative ... but investors continue to be gullible. In July, the U.S. actually lost 585,000 full-time jobs -- moreover, all revisions to previous data is downward.
  • State & federal tax revenues are down. the US incurred a deficit of $1.3T in Fiscal 2022 (September). If  the current run rate is sustained that would imply an annualized deficit of $2.9 Trillion.
  • Fitch is continuing to downgrade bank debt.
  • Money supply is falling at the fastest rate in history.
  • Farm Income is projected to drop 25% in 2023 due to projected yields and increased costs.
  • Will the airline unions further disrupt the economy by striking ... demanding wage and benefit increases that will increase costs and reduce company profits.
  • Trucking revenues and rates are falling each month according to the Cass data.
  • Cardboard box demand is dropping.
  • The Index of Leading Indicators from the Conference Board has declined for 15 consecutive months.
  • Delinquency rates for commercial properties both here and abroad continues to increase.
  • Mortgage rates are 19% higher than a year ago.  Will the FED continue to raise interest rates again at their next meeting?
  • Credit card debt continues to increase as do rates.
  • Complaints about missing funds or delays in deposits being available at banking institutions are increasing.

The STI (Simple Timing Indicator) and the number of "A" rated stocks remains below the red line.

Do not forget that about 25% of the stock markets value is held by only 7 stocks ... danger ahead?

Have we reached the Minsky moment?  The dollar's reserve status is slipping away taking the U.S. economy towards a slippery slope.

The meeting in South Africa this past week set in motion a further shrinkage in the role of the U.S. dollar in international trade.

Dare I say that it will be at least another year of dismal U.S. and world economic growth.

And that is if we don't enter a major military war with either Russia or China.

Until Congress stops spending deficit dollars, the outlook is bleak. 

Do not be surprised if the NASDAQ falls through 8,000, the SPX to 2,500 and the DJIA sees the 25,000 level.

Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"

It is difficult to find long-term trading opportunities with the future so uncertain. There are only two stocks currently held in the Strategic Investing Trading Portfolio.

By any reasonable measure, this market is dangerous.

Be careful ....

To review the 09/15/2023 FlowChart, click here.
   

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