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Market Musings

The Harris/Trump debate is history ... and the undecided voters will determine the winner.

The PPT showed up this morning and turned the market around ... be careful going forward.

Pundits are predicting a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate at the next FED meeting which should increase the pressure on the bond markets as the Chinese and Japanese continue to shed U.S. assets.

The reality of the economic picture is beginning to seep into some investors minds.

Increasing unemployment, federal debt over $35T and private jobs hiring shrinking with layoffs being announced by major companies. 

Do you smell the tulips yet?

Corporate bankruptcies in July continued to increase. Commercial real estate is facing serious defaults. Mortgage, auto and credit card delinquencies are also increasing.

Employment is increasing in government jobs while private jobs are going to non-US citizens.

The FED denies that a recession has started but a few former FED insiders believe otherwise including yours truly.

Three quarters of every income tax dollar in June went to pay interest on the federal debt!

Obama and Pelosi engineered the coup against President Biden and now we have the Democratic contenders selected not by any primary voter ... talk about a constitutional republic all you want ... but that is not the way our elections are supposed to go.

The STI (Simple Timing Indicator) which is the number of "A" rated stocks in the IBD database  moved lower this week.

Do not forget that about 22% of the stock markets value is held by only 7 stocks ... danger ahead?

Have we reached the Minsky moment?  The dollar's reserve status is slipping away taking the U.S. economy towards a slippery slope.

And don't forget that the elections are just ahead!

Still if you  believe the government's data, you could think that the economy is doing better. 

 Looking under the hood paints a much different picture according to Shadow Government Statistics.

Dare I say that it will be at least another year of dismal U.S. and world economic growth.

And that is if we don't enter a major military war with either Russia or China.

Do not be surprised if the NASDAQ falls through 8,000, the SPX to 2,500 and the DJIA sees the 25,000 level.

Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"

By any reasonable measure, this market is dangerous.

Be careful ....