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Market Musings

The IBD market call remains "Market in Confirmed Uptrend."  Most USA indices are near 2024 highs as investor hopes diverge from economic reality.

While the market makes new highs, understand that the U.S. dollar has lost 18% of its value since 2020 thanks to inflation.

The STI (Simple Timing Indicator) which is the number of "A" rated stocks in the IBD database  has fallen close to the red line.

The Hamas/Israel conflict seems likely to expand throughout the Middle East. The U.S. and British strikes against the Hothi's in Yemen has raised the stakes for Russia and Iran.

 Biden and Israel have different objectives about the outcome for Hamas and the Palestine state.

China continues to escalate threats throughout the Near East raising fears of a wider military conflict.  China's economy is struggling and its birthrate is in free fall.

The Russian-Ukraine conflict continues to drag on. Many U.S. politicians are becoming alarmed at the conflicts cost to U.S. finances.

Rebuilding our military weapon stockpiles is going to be expensive and will take time.

In the meantime, the undocumented invasion continues at the U.S. borders and it is becoming a major wakeup call in the upcoming elections.

No one really knows how many foreign terrorists and/or military-trained Chinese have slipped through the border.  Recent vids of armed illegals are making the rounds of the internet.  Is it 8 million or 10 million illegals in 2023?  No one knows but the U.S. government is catching(?) and releasing ... the Democrats are responsible!

Texas is now arresting and deporting illegals and the U.S. government is suing the state.

Do not forget that about 25% of the stock markets value is held by only 7 stocks ... danger ahead?

Have we reached the Minsky moment?  The dollar's reserve status is slipping away taking the U.S. economy towards a slippery slope.  Oil sales are no longer settled in only U.S. dollars.

Gold made a new all-time high last week before the paper short-sellers entered to take it down.

Dare I say that it will be at least another year of dismal U.S. and world economic growth.

And that is if we don't enter a major military war with either Russia or China.

Do not be surprised if the NASDAQ falls through 8,000, the SPX to 2,500 and the DJIA sees the 25,000 level.

Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"

It is difficult to find long-term trading opportunities with the future so uncertain. 

By any reasonable measure, this market is dangerous.

Be careful ....

To review the 02/9/2024 FlowChart, click here.

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