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Market Musings

The lawfare drumbeat against DOGE and Trump's efforts to rein in wasteful spending and reduce the size of government deficits continues.

Term limits are about the only way to solve the problem.

Of course, the effect of tariffs on the economy is worrisome to politicians but they refuse to acknowledge it was their votes that  have placed the United States in a perilous financial position.

Politicians talk about a $36 trillion debt when in actuality the true GAAP debt is over 3 times that amount using a 7% discount factor.

According to Treasury's own documents as of September 30, 2024, the potential GAAP debt was in excess of $220 trillion.

When the economy is running less than $25 trillion yearly, it does not take an idiot to see the eventual problem. As Minsky said, it only takes one grain of sand ...

It is not surprising to me that Trump and Musk wonder if there is any encumbered gold left in Fort Knox. The movements of physical gold from London and into China, Japan and India the last few months must be concerning to the London gold exchange.

During the past week we've seen a significant reduction in investors' faith in the economy. Efforts to rebound led by the PPT have seen selling overcome those efforts the next day.

One must wonder the effect of continued opposition and manipulation of the courts will eventually have on  the Trumps administration efforts attempt to reduce the deficit.

The tariff negotiation gambit is leading to all types of economic paradoxes as nations react to the threats.

Our screens are finding very few quality stocks and the trading portfolio has taken a position in gold stocks but we remain over 50% in cash.

We expect that the economy will find it difficult to move higher in the second quarter.

Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"

By any reasonable measure, this market is dangerous.

Be careful ....

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